Tuesday, January 08, 2008

I'm standing by my Hillary as President, Obama as VP prediction, even after her Iowa loss, and even after she loses in New Hampshire today. I just don't think Obama has staying power. I know Clinton's performance in the debate is going to hurt her 1, but that'll blow over; what won't blow over is that Obama only has 2 years in the Senate as a qualification. As much as he's supposed to be the candidate of change, I don't see much different between him and the mainstream Democratic platform. He and Clinton aren't that far apart. I think that will become more evident. Iowa and New Hampshire aren't everything.

I certainly don't want Hillary Clinton to win; this is just a prediction. She's also very close to the core Democratic platform, which, like that of the Republicans, is just a bundle of positions lacking conceptual coherence and unifying principles. The people who are consistent and make sense are the ones I like, and are inevitably longshots: Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Ron Paul.

So. Obama's going to run out of steam. Clinton is going to be humbled but win through, and the two of them will unite to make an unstoppable pair. I don't think John Edwards can make it, and this time being #2 is not going to be good enough; the Clinton/Obama synergy is just too strong. Bill Richardson was just in the race to become VP, which is also not going to happen. He's got the most impressive resume of the field, but that's apparently not important, and Obama has trumped his Hispanic heritage. Joe Biden I think was running just for fun.

Of the Republicans, the main thing that matters to me is that Giuliani lose. He's such a bellicose law-and-order authoritarian. Somehow Americans seem to like him in spite of his many, many flaws. George W. Bush got lucky with September 11th, but then screwed up the aftermath; Giuliani got similarly lucky, but term limits scooted him out of there before he could screw it up, too. Romney I could live with, but I don't see him winning. Huckabee kind of worries me, but I don't think he can win, either. The other one to watch seems to be McCain; he has a broad appeal in spite of his staunch conservatism, and could give Clinton/Obama a run for their money.

If I had to summarize my prognostications, I'd put my dollars on Clinton/Obama beating McCain/Huckabee in November by a respectable but not large margin.

1 I suspect Obama is mellower because he's had to deal with 2-year olds much more recently

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